Northeastern now has 6 games and 3 weekends left before the playoffs, Northeastern doesn’t have a lot of time left, and doesn’t have anything in the way of a point cushion. Here’s a very helpful breakdown of their chances.
The chart ranks teams based on the probabilities for their highest position (eg. UML is in 1st, but ranked on 3rd on the chart based on probabilities. Currently, Northeastern ranks 9th in the chart, as UMass has a slightly higher chance at a higher position (a 5% chance of 6th place as opposed to NU’s 4% chance).
While these numbers are relatively volatile (the further out, the higher the volatility), it reinforces what I said earlier in the week: the only team that matters is UMass. Look at the standings. Currently, 3 teams are assured of a playoff spot, 2 with under a 1% chance, and two with a 5% chance or lower. In contrast, Vermont has only a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
Looking at the most basic math, Northeastern has a slightly higher mathematical chance than UMass. NU has a 61% of making the playoffs, while UMass only has a 47% chance. The series this weekend is crucial. A sweep will put Northeastern a point under Providence , highly increasing our chance of making the playoffs (as well as lowering UMass’ and PC’s).
Interestingly, Northeastern also has a 7% chance of making the NCAA playoffs. It’s similar to what happened to UMass in 2009-2010, where they placed 8th in Hockey East, but thanks to a sweep of UNH in the playoffs and a tough OOC schedule they made it into the playoffs. It’s highly unlikely given the Huskies play, but something to think about if they go on a roll.